Paul Christiano's 2021 predictions on automated AI R&D are aging remarkably well
Ronangmi · x · 2026-09-11
A side-by-side of Paul Christiano's 2021 remarks and his comments yesterday: he predicted progressively better coding assistants dramatically speeding up coding, then 'hundreds of billions of dollars at Google on automating AI R&D', massive semiconductor scaleups, and speculative AI valuations financing a significant fraction of GWP into AI R&D — betting on trillions vs. then-current $100B hardware and $10B AI R&D. The poster notes those with outlandish AI beliefs have been the best predictors so far.
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