Polymarket odds for a US AI safety bill before 2027 rise to 27% amid catastrophic-risk warnings
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-11
On Polymarket, the contract "Will the US enact an AI safety bill before 2027?" trades at 27% odds with about $102K in volume, after multiple researchers warned advanced AI could "kill us all by the end of the decade."
Resolution criteria (any one triggers Yes):
- Prohibiting creation or release of specific AI systems/models
- Training restrictions (data access limits or parameter caps)
- Usage restrictions on certain applications (customer interaction, app interfacing, web actions)
- Mandatory human-in-the-loop oversight
Near-term catalysts are bipartisan Senate talks led by Sens. Klobuchar, Cruz, and Majority Leader Thune on targeted guardrails for catastrophic risks, though overall congressional appetite remains limited.
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