AI doom forecasts mocked: 10% probability, 90% confidence, 0% calibration
YogeshMalik · x · 2026-09-11
A circulating joke skewers AI extinction-risk estimates:
> AI researcher: "I estimate a 15% chance of extinction."
> "Based on what?"
> "Vibes, but Bayesian."
Summed up as "10% probability, 90% confidence, 0% calibration," it mocks how high-stakes forecasts often lack calibrated evidence while dressing themselves in rigorous probabilistic language.
Related event: Joke mocks AI extinction risk estimates as 'Bayesian vibes'(2 posts)→
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