AI extinction estimates in one joke: 'Vibes, but Bayesian'

YogeshMalik · x · 2026-09-11

A joke-format post poking fun at how AI extinction risk estimates are made:

AI researcher: "I estimate a 15% chance of extinction."

"Based on what?"

"Vibes, but Bayesian."

A self-aware jab at how quantified p(doom) numbers often lack rigorous grounding.

Related event: Joke mocks AI extinction risk estimates as 'Bayesian vibes'(2 posts)→

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