AI extinction estimates in one joke: 'Vibes, but Bayesian'
YogeshMalik · x · 2026-09-11
A joke-format post poking fun at how AI extinction risk estimates are made:
AI researcher: "I estimate a 15% chance of extinction."
"Based on what?"
"Vibes, but Bayesian."
A self-aware jab at how quantified p(doom) numbers often lack rigorous grounding.
Related event: Joke mocks AI extinction risk estimates as 'Bayesian vibes'(2 posts)→
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