Melanie Mitchell fact-checks the 'half of AI researchers see 10% extinction risk' claim

MelMitchell1 · x · 2026-09-11

Melanie Mitchell pushes back on widespread media citations (NYT, Vox, New Yorker) claiming a 2022 survey found half of AI researchers see a ≥10% chance of human extinction from AI. She argues the AI Impacts survey claim is neither new nor backed by new evidence, and her blog post details the fact-check.

Related event: Melanie Mitchell Slams Media for Recycling Unsubstantiated AI Extinction Risk Claims(3 posts)→

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