Researcher pushes back on AI extinction odds: conditional vs median-path estimates diverge
Afinetheorem · x · 2026-09-10
Responding to high extinction-risk estimates circulating in the Emergent Ventures group chat, researcher Afinetheorem argues that while 'can AI kill all humans in a decade with no development limits' is surely above 10%, the same is true of nuclear weapons or bioweapons—and conditional on the median development path, the probability is far lower.
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