Economist Ben Moll spars with DeepMind's AGI economics head over post-AGI GDP growth bets
sebkrier · x · 2026-09-10
Economist Ben Moll publicly responds to criticism of a GDM AGI-economics blog post and invites critic jankulveit to bet against him. Key points:
- Growth isn't "as if nothing happens": even lifting GDP growth to 4-5% would be massive (Section 1 of the piece).
- Macro effects, not capability forecasting: the post doesn't predict capabilities—AI insiders are better at that—but examines how a capabilities explosion translates into GDP growth.
- He politely disagrees that macroeconomics is a topic he doesn't understand.
Context: jankulveit had argued the GDM AGI economics lead sits in the "everything continues as normal" camp, ignoring assumptions like AIs becoming customers, and that its forecasting claims are weak.
Related event: Economists Push Back on Predictions of Double-Digit AI-Driven GDP Growth(10 posts)→
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