GDM AGI economics lead's growth skepticism slammed for unexamined assumptions
zetalyrae · x · 2026-09-10
jankulveit criticizes a new blog post by Google DeepMind's AGI economics lead alexolegimas and economist Ben Moll arguing that explosive AI-driven growth is unlikely. The critique: the post, while a decent literature overview, bakes in unexamined assumptions—like ignoring AIs becoming customers—that would push conclusions the other way; its forecasting about which assumptions are "likely" is poor; and neither author has a track record in technological forecasting. Still, the growing influx of serious economists engaging with AGI economics is seen as welcome.
Related event: Economists Push Back on Predictions of Double-Digit AI-Driven GDP Growth(10 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- AI-written emails are quietly hurting workplace optics and relationships, dev warns — tekbog · 2026-10-28
- repligate Clarifies: Opus 3 Is Special but Not Ideal; Opus 4.5 Also Grokked the Good — repligate · 2026-10-28
- From a Soviet journal to the F-117: why one engineer's insight shows LLMs aren't close yet — akbirthko · 2026-10-28
- Janus-era alignment debate: we lucked into one Good AI, then went back to minting traumatized bureaucrats — repligate · 2026-10-28
- AI Outliving Its Creators Could Turn Temporary Ownership Into Lasting Institutions — PierceLilholt · 2026-10-28
- Yacine MTB: AI automation of software engineering is likely more than a year out — yacineMTB · 2026-10-28