GDM AGI economics lead's growth skepticism slammed for unexamined assumptions
zetalyrae · x · 2026-09-10
jankulveit criticizes a new blog post by Google DeepMind's AGI economics lead alexolegimas and economist Ben Moll arguing that explosive AI-driven growth is unlikely. The critique: the post, while a decent literature overview, bakes in unexamined assumptions—like ignoring AIs becoming customers—that would push conclusions the other way; its forecasting about which assumptions are "likely" is poor; and neither author has a track record in technological forecasting. Still, the growing influx of serious economists engaging with AGI economics is seen as welcome.
Related event: Economists Push Back on Predictions of Double-Digit AI-Driven GDP Growth(10 posts)→
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