METR 3-hour task horizon hit 20 months early; LiveCodeBench Pro already at 53%
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-09-10
- Two more beaten forecasts from Ben Todd's thread: the METR 80% task-horizon benchmark was expected to hit 3h by end of 2026 but reached it in April; his own 6h-by-year-end call is on track.
- On LiveCodeBench Pro, his above-consensus 23% forecast for end of 2026 was smashed — AI hit 53% in 2025.
Related event: Ben Todd's Forecast Review: Everyone Is Underestimating AI Progress(6 posts)→
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