Humans are terrible at estimating long-tail probabilities — and yet, what's your p(doom)?
benfielding · x · 2026-09-10
Ben Fielding mocks AI doomer p(doom) culture: well-documented evidence shows humans are really bad at estimating long-tail probabilities and typically massively overestimate them—yet many very smart people keep ignoring that and still quote their personal odds of AI-driven extinction.
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