Economists Ben Moll and Alex Olegimas argue explosive AI growth forecasts are unlikely to hold
soumitrashukla9 · x · 2026-09-10
Economists Alex Olegimas and Ben Moll published a blog post examining the economics of AI's contribution to growth, pushing back on double-digit growth predictions from those closest to the technology.
Key arguments:
- Nothing in economic growth models prevents AI from delivering explosive growth;
- But that trajectory relies on a series of assumptions unlikely to hold in the real world;
- Technologists have been largely right about exploding capability improvements, yet those improvements may not translate into explosive growth.
The post walks through the key economic forces governing how large AI's effect on growth will be and assesses which path we may be on today. OpenAI's Peter McCrory called it complementary research to work OpenAI shared the same day.
Related event: Economists Push Back on Predictions of Double-Digit AI-Driven GDP Growth(10 posts)→
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