AI valuations look like peak crypto; lab revenue still two orders of magnitude from trillions
allTheYud · x · 2026-09-10
allTheYud argues AI company revenue is getting closer to the "trillions" mark, but current valuations resemble the previous peak crypto era—high prices with little real economic effect, exactly his earlier prediction. For Paul's scenario to play out, Anthropic would need to actually earn trillions in revenue (two orders of magnitude up from now), and the world would need to last four more years. He adds that on the crux of the dialogue—how much revenue AI labs will have—Paul Christiano's view looks notably more predictive so far.
Related event: Debate Rages Over Whether AI Labs Can Hit Trillion-Dollar Revenue(4 posts)→
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