"10% AI Ends Humanity" Is Unreasonable; "Someone Uses AI for Damage" Is the Real Question
mbateman · x · 2026-09-09
mbateman critiques how AI risk is framed: "There is a 10% chance that AI ends humanity in the next decade" is false in a way that makes it almost impossible to reason about, whereas "There is a 10% chance that someone uses AI to do a great deal of damage in the next decade" is more plausible and at least analyzable. His point: risk discourse should separate autonomous model doom from human misuse — the former has no tractable causal mechanism, the latter does.
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