Blogger pushes back on '10% AI extinction in a decade': no plausible path exists
mbateman · x · 2026-09-09
Blogger mbateman argues that the claim "AI has a 10% chance of ending humanity in the next decade" is false in a way that makes it un-reasonable-about: literally wiping out humanity is extremely hard, and the strongest imaginable scenarios (shoggoth, gray goo, paperclipping) are nowhere near plausible enough. He offers a reframing: "a 10% chance someone uses AI to do a great deal of damage" is more plausible and can actually be reasoned about.
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