Why loss curves cross: misspecification, complexity, and prior fit
BlackHC · x · 2026-09-09
The author explains what makes Bayesian loss curves cross, with three regimes shaping the curve:
- Misspecification → the loss floor
- Model complexity → the eventual 1/n excess
- Prior fit + strength → early/intermediate shape
A diffuse prior and prior-data conflict can share a starting loss yet learn differently.
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