tszzl: solving mechinterp within a year could halve his p(doom); utopia is seriously possible
tszzl · x · 2026-09-09
Notable AI commentator tszzl admits he hasn't done an all-cause Bayesian accounting of his p(doom) number, calling it fake precision — for instance, he sees a serious chance the world solves mechinterp within the next year, which would slash his number in half at least. On the flip side, he argues there's a serious chance of "utopia beyond imagination": centuries of scientific progress compressed into a decade, immortality and infinity, incredible beauty.
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