Hinton admits he was wrong: AI hasn't replaced radiologists a decade after his prediction
garrytan · x · 2026-09-08
Geoffrey Hinton concedes his 2016 prediction that radiologists would stop reading scans within 5 years was wrong, for two reasons:
- Cheaper, faster scans didn't cut demand — hospitals simply ordered more scans, so radiologist employment grew (a Jevons-paradox outcome);
- He didn't really understand the job: his picture of a radiologist came largely from one former student who mostly read scans and rarely talked to people.
The AI side did roughly go to plan — machines got good at reading scans — but making one part of a job cheaper doesn't automatically eliminate the job. Noah Smith (Noahpinion) builds on this: while Pew/Ipsos polls show most Americans believe AI competes with workers rather than complements them (and that belief has strengthened), the overall labor market remains historically healthy, with prime-age employment rates at highs. "AI is a job killer" remains an article of faith, not a data-backed reality. Garry Tan amplified the piece.
Related event: AI Godfather Hinton Admits His Radiologist Prediction Was Wrong(4 posts)→
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