S&P 500 ex-tech still grew earnings 28.3%, debunking the AI-concentration bear case
sudoraohacker · x · 2026-09-08
Josh Brown stripped every tech company out of the S&P 500 and found earnings still grew 28.3% — rising to 32% with tech included.
Key points:
- 10 of 11 sectors are growing profits; the "it's all AI, too narrow, too concentrated" narratives are, in his words, money-losing stories.
- Net income margin estimates were revised from 15% to 15.6%, and sales growth of 15.2% beats analyst expectations from two months ago by over 300 basis points.
- 20x earnings isn't cheap, but there's no reason it must trade lower; comparing today's multiples to decades ago is misleading.
Quoted context: Stan Druckenmiller told Alex Karp the market could stay flat for a decade (like 1966–1982), yet Apple Computer and Home Depot were founded in that era — so businesses can still thrive in such environments.
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