Polymarket puts AI bubble burst odds at 11% by end of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-08
Polymarket's market on whether the AI bubble bursts before December 31, 2026 currently prices the odds at about 11% (Yes at 11.9¢), with over $2.95M in volume.
Resolution requires at least three of these conditions within a 90-day window:
- NVDA down 50% from all-time high
- SOXX down 40% from high
- OpenAI or Anthropic declares bankruptcy
- OpenAI gets acquired
- H100 rental price at $1.00 or below for five consecutive days
- A major AI hardware supplier (TSMC, ASML, Broadcom, Arista, SMCI) down 50% from high
The same account also cited Pew's finding that 52% of Americans are more concerned than excited about AI — a contrast between public sentiment and market pricing.
Related event: Polymarket bets only 11% chance of AI bubble bursting by 2026(4 posts)→
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