Extrapolating OpenAI's plots: >25% of compute on agent inference within a year
joshua_clymer · x · 2026-09-08
Joshua Clymer naively extrapolates OpenAI's published charts and concludes:
- OpenAI is on track to spend over 25% of its compute on AI agent inference within 9-12 months.
- In roughly 18 months, AI agents might autonomously complete AI R&D tasks equal to a full human work-year (using 50% success rate as the threshold).
He notes progress could be even faster than this extrapolation suggests, and credits the original OpenAI data.
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