Miles Brundage: my 2018 report discussed 5-year plausibility, not predictions
Miles_Brundage · x · 2026-09-07
Former OpenAI policy head Miles Brundage responds to Delip Rao's criticism, clarifying his 2018 report scoped things "plausible in the next 5 years" based on proofs of concept and trends—not long-term point predictions—and he doesn't claim it got everything right. He objects to people dismissing even discussion of such possibilities, not to rational skepticism at the time.
He adds that by no later than 2020, early scaling laws and the untapped scale of internet data made it clear progress would continue quickly for a while longer.
More from AGI Musings
- Astra's AGI estimate jumps with tool use — is 'ASI already here' just a harness question? — kevinnbass · 2026-09-07
- French futurist warns AI agents will turn the digital divide into a rupture — emmanuelvivier · 2026-09-07
- Ignore the model hype: test Fable 5.1 vs GPT-6 Astra on work you know deeply — iannuttall · 2026-09-07
- Jevons paradox: cheaper AI scans mean more radiologists needed, not fewer — zainhas · 2026-09-07
- Naval: The VC Question 'Where's the Software Piece?' Is Dead — AI Coding Agents Made Software the Cheap Part — victor_explore · 2026-09-07
- Instinct's playbook: free product, costly compute, VC cash subsidizing agent habit formation, Uber-style — AccBalanced · 2026-09-07