AI job impact map: web developers 94% substitutable, teachers only 29%, across 798 US occupations
alvelda · x · 2026-09-07
Liminal Capital's AI Job Impact Map, based on a paper by Verschuere & Cameron plus BLS 2025 occupational data and ONET task statements, quantifies all 798 US occupations on two axes:
- Substitution (S): share of the job AI can perform end-to-end — job-destroying
- Complement (C): share requiring a human present — job-preserving or creating
Sample numbers: financial advisors S 48% / C 52%; educators S 29% / C 54%; web developers S 94% / C 3%. Occupations are color-coded into zones (Exposed, Contested, Dividend, Protected, Physically insulated), bubble size = employment, and the area below the S+C=1 line represents purely physical work.
The authors stress these are scenario outputs from a published model, not forecasts, and not investment advice.
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