Polymarket opens betting on release date of Meta's next-gen frontier model codenamed Watermelon
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-05
Polymarket launched a prediction market on when Meta will publicly release its next-gen frontier model, internally codenamed "Watermelon." Context: alongside the Muse Spark 1.3 launch on Sept 2, 2026, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models," and credible reporting identified Watermelon as the codename for the next frontier model. Rules require a genuine public release (open beta or open waitlist counts; closed beta doesn't). Current market pricing puts release odds at roughly 15% by end of September, 63% by October, and 79% by November.
More from Models
- 105 Real Bugs Tested: GPT-6.1 Sol Over 10x Cheaper Than GPT-5.6 Sol — PawelHuryn · 2026-10-23
- Abliterated V4.1-Flash eval: abstract algebra drops 6pp but college math gains 5pp — teortaxesTex · 2026-10-23
- Claude users hit "model at capacity" errors hourly, canceling plans over it — Alex-Stack · 2026-10-23
- Kimi K3.1 launch imminent: 3T-param bet on RL seen as make-or-break — teortaxesTex · 2026-10-23
- Uncensored fine-tunes vanish from Hugging Face amid unexplained takedowns — umarmnaq · 2026-10-23
- Claude app menu leaks mystery model name 'Fable' as user hits limits — ezshine · 2026-10-23