Polymarket opens betting on release date of Meta's next-gen frontier model codenamed Watermelon

Polymarket · x · 2026-09-05

Polymarket launched a prediction market on when Meta will publicly release its next-gen frontier model, internally codenamed "Watermelon." Context: alongside the Muse Spark 1.3 launch on Sept 2, 2026, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models," and credible reporting identified Watermelon as the codename for the next frontier model. Rules require a genuine public release (open beta or open waitlist counts; closed beta doesn't). Current market pricing puts release odds at roughly 15% by end of September, 63% by October, and 79% by November.

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