LLMs fail basic probability coherence: P(rain)=0.7 but P(no rain)=0.2
Moh1tAgarwal · x · 2026-09-05
Researcher Suproteem Sarkar illustrates a probability-coherence failure in LLMs: ask a model the chance of rain tomorrow, then the chance of no rain — the two must sum to 1, yet the model may output P(rain)=0.7 and P(no rain)=0.2. The thread targets calibration and consistency of LLM probability outputs.
Related event: LLMs give incoherent probabilities: P(rain) + P(no rain) ≠ 1(2 posts)→
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