LLMs give incoherent probabilities: P(rain) + P(no rain) ≠ 1

Suproteem Sarkar demonstrated LLM calibration failures: asking P(rain)=0.7 and P(no rain)=0.2 separately yields probabilities summing to 0.9, violating basic probability axioms and drawing attention in AI×economics research.

2026-09-05 ~ 2026-09-05 · 2 related posts

• LLMs fail basic probability coherence: P(rain)=0.7 but P(no rain)=0.2 — Moh1tAgarwal · 2026-09-05
• LLMs produce inconsistent probabilities: P(rain) + P(no rain) don't sum to one — soumitrashukla9 · 2026-09-05