Stanford's Kundaje debates how far genomic prediction models still are from molQTLs

anshulkundaje · x · 2026-08-30

A substantive academic debate in AI genomics. Stanford's Anshul Kundaje argues that for chromatin phenotypes, current SOTA predictive models already outperform Prediexcan-like methods and are approaching heritability ceilings, and that fine-mapped caQTL maps built with lenient posterior thresholds contain many false positives.

His counterpart tuuliel concedes statistical limits but notes current predictive models capture only a small fraction of empirically observed molQTLs, and that QTL mapping or CRISPR validation across all cell states is impossible. Kundaje replies that expression prediction indeed has a long way to go — his papers explicitly temper expectations — and that his hybrid statistical-plus-predictive approach is precisely meant to reduce the need for massive sample sizes.

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