Example: 10% annual extinction risk means rising survival expectation
erikbryn · x · 2026-08-29
Erik Brynjolfsson provides a concrete example: if p=0.1 and T=100, the expected value of survival starts at 37% and rises steadily each year we survive. If we reach year 100, it reaches 100%. This monotonic update is rational, contrasting with the random walk model.
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