Open vs Closed Source AI Gap to Vanish in 90 Days: Technical Reasons
bindureddy · x · 2026-08-29
The author predicts the gap between open-source and closed-source AI will vanish in 90 days due to several factors: Four independent open model families (DeepSeek, Qwen, Kimi, GLM) are compounding intelligence on each other's public weights; Frontier models are delayed or canceled (e.g., Anthropic withholding Model 2, OpenAI's Astra stuck), making them easier to catch; Open source has caught up on first-turn benchmarks, with the only gap being long-horizon tool loops, for which data is being gathered; Compute availability is surging, with Zai demonstrating 100T tokens capacity in 6 days and Chinese chips coming online. Prices are expected to drop by 80-90% within 6-12 weeks.
More from AGI Musings
- UMD Philosophy hires: junior Philosophy of Mind and joint AI Ethics/Safety positions — sethlazar · 2026-10-16
- Dwarkesh: Anthropic insider expects AI to match humans at AI research within 9 months — ZeroStateReflex · 2026-10-16
- Michigan professor Ben Green: why 'AI for Good' fails and self-regulation won't work — benzevgreen · 2026-10-16
- "Everything Is an Alignment Problem": AI Models, Business Models, Teams, Providers — saranormous · 2026-10-16
- David Brin: LLMs lack 'wanting,' evolution's key product, in new machine consciousness book — cccalum · 2026-10-16
- AI doesn't kill the joy of learning, it kills the prestige of it — ZeroStateReflex · 2026-10-16