Scott Alexander on Biological Anchors and AGI Timeline Debates
finbarrtimbers · x · 2026-08-25
Links to a 2022 article by Scott Alexander reviewing Ajeya Cotra's report on "biological anchors" for predicting AGI timelines. It details the methodological debate between Cotra and Eliezer Yudkowsky regarding when human-level AI will arrive, discussing different views on mapping compute to neural network parameters.
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