Open Source Prediction Market Bot Uses BTC Microstructure and Weather Models for Arbitrage
tom_doerr · x · 2026-08-22
This is an open-source multi-strategy trading bot designed to identify pricing inefficiencies in prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. It combines Bitcoin 5-minute microstructure analysis with ensemble weather forecasting for trading decisions.
Key Features & Strategies:
- Strategy 1: Scans Polymarket BTC 5-minute Up/Down markets every 60 seconds using real-time 1-minute candle data from C sources.
- Strategy 2: Trades weather temperature markets (KXHIGH series) on Kalshi and Polymarket using 31-member GFS ensemble forecasts.
- Risk Management: Implements Kelly criterion for position sizing and signal calibration.
- Dashboard: Includes a professional React dashboard for monitoring.
Technical Details:
- 100% free to run; no paid APIs or subscriptions are required, utilizing only free data sources.
- Includes comprehensive architecture documentation, research logs, and validated experiment records.
- Features a clean structure for backend, frontend, and configuration files for easy deployment.
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