What happens to chip smuggling if the US bans datacenter builds?

trevposts · x · 2026-08-21

A thought experiment on a hypothetical US datacenter moratorium. The author lays out key uncertainties, notably how it would affect China's access to chips: a ban would reduce both the production of and demand for smuggled chips—and which effect dominates is unclear. An open-ended framework for thinking through second-order effects of compute restrictions.

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