Reddit Poll: 30B Model Reaches Opus Level in 6 Months? Optimists Win
Terminator857 · reddit · 2026-08-14
The r/LocalLLaMA community voted earlier this year on when a 30B open-weight model would reach Opus-level capability. Six months later, the least-voted option '6 months or less' won with 18 votes, based on the Qwen 3.8 release. Vote distribution: 18 for 6 months, 41 for 1 year, 25 for 18 months, 56 for 2 years, 118 for 'keep dreaming', and 55 for 'doesn't matter'. The author suggests a new poll for Fable-level performance.
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