Polymarket Indicates Only a 15% Chance of an AI Bubble Burst by Year-End
Polymarket · x · 2026-08-13
According to Polymarket prediction market data, there is only a 15% probability that the AI industry will experience a major downturn (a bubble burst) by the end of the year. Resolution criteria for a downturn include NVIDIA's stock dropping 50% from its all-time high, OpenAI going bankrupt or being acquired, or a significant drop in H100 rental prices.
Meanwhile, demand for AI infrastructure remains robust. Nebius reported a massive 514% surge in its AI cloud revenue, highlighting that the boom in computing power demand continues unabated.
Related event: Prediction Markets Put AI Bubble Burst Probability at 15%(3 posts)→
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