Polymarket Odds: Only 13% Chance of AI Bubble Bursting Before 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-08-12
A prediction market on Polymarket currently shows a 13% chance that the AI industry will experience a major downturn before the end of 2026.
The market defines a downturn strictly: at least three specific events must occur within a 90-day window. These include NVDA stock dropping 50% from its high, SOXX ETF dropping 40%, OpenAI or Anthropic declaring bankruptcy, OpenAI being acquired, H100 rental prices falling to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, or major hardware suppliers (TSMC, ASML, etc.) dropping 50% from their highs.
Related event: Polymarket Bets Probability of AI Bubble Burst at Only 12%-14%(5 posts)→
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