Polymarket Prices AI Bubble Burst Odds at Just 13%
Polymarket · x · 2026-08-10
Amid Intel's new stock offering for AI, prediction market Polymarket highlights its contract betting on an AI industry downturn by the end of 2026, currently priced at a mere 13%.
The market defines an industry downturn using strict quantitative criteria, requiring at least three of the following within 90 days:
- NVIDIA (NVDA) stock drops 50% from ATH.
- Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) drops 40% from ATH.
- OpenAI or Anthropic declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days.
- Major hardware suppliers (TSMC, ASML, Broadcom) drop 50% from ATH.
Related event: Prediction Markets Place Only 14% Odds on AI Bubble Burst(3 posts)→
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