Polymarket: Only 18% Chance U.S. Enacts AI Safety Bill by 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-08-07
According to prediction market Polymarket, there is only an 18% chance that the United States will enact a federal AI safety bill by the end of 2026. The criteria require a federal law signed by the deadline that includes provisions such as prohibiting the creation or release of specific AI systems, restricting training data or compute parameters, or limiting certain use cases.
Additionally, the context highlights recent warnings from scientists about "urgent" biosecurity concerns after AI successfully designed 16 new viruses capable of replicating inside cells.
Related event: Prediction Market: Chances of US Federal AI Safety Law by 2026 Below 20%(2 posts)→
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