Wall Street Expects AI Capex Surge: OpenAI Quarterly Spending Could Top $18B
PTrubey · x · 2026-08-05
Wall Street analysts project a massive ramp-up in OpenAI's capital expenditures, with 2Q26 estimated at $18.4 billion, significantly beating the Street's consensus of $14.8 billion. Management expects H2 spending to look very similar, far above the pre-release consensus of $13.0-$13.7 billion.
While the payback period on these AI investments seems clear and attractive to analysts, the massive uptick in capex will likely weigh on market sentiment until there is greater investor confidence in the outlook, particularly given well-known lockup dynamics.
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