Joke: AGI Timelines Decay with Distance from SF in an Inverse Square Law
ziv_ravid · x · 2026-08-05
The author jokes about the hyper-enthusiastic expectations for AGI timelines within the AI community. He notes that AGI timelines seem to decay with distance from San Francisco in an inverse square law: 6 months in the city, a couple of years down the peninsula, a decade once you leave the state, and just news beyond that.
More from AGI Musings
- Stripe Data Reveals AI Startup Boom: New Businesses Double, Revenue Accelerates — heyshrutimishra · 2026-08-05
- AutismCapital Essay: AI and Robotics Will Inevitably Replace Human Emotional Roles — AICopyLab · 2026-08-05
- Jeff Ladish: Superintelligence Can Cure Disease and Poverty, If Aligned — JeffLadish · 2026-08-05
- Study: People Prefer AI-Written Stories Blindly, Rate Highest When Falsely Told They're Human — EricTopol · 2026-08-05
- METR Capability Curve Predicts Infinite Task Success as Models Reach Superhuman Levels — geoffreyirving · 2026-08-05
- Prediction: A Breakthrough Consumer AI Agent to Rival ChatGPT Within 12 Months — signulll · 2026-08-05