Polymarket Prices 19% Chance of AI Bubble Burst by 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-08-04
Prediction market Polymarket currently estimates a 19% probability that the AI industry will experience a downturn by the end of 2026.
The market has strict quantitative criteria for a "burst," requiring at least three of the following to occur within a 90-day window:
- NVIDIA (NVDA) stock drops 50% from its ATH.
- iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) drops 40%.
- OpenAI or Anthropic declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI is acquired.
- H100 rental prices fall to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days.
- Major hardware suppliers like TSMC, ASML, or Broadcom drop 50% from their ATHs.
Related event: Polymarket Bets 19% Probability on AI Bubble Burst(2 posts)→
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