Two-Token Future: How Frontier Labs Could Undercut Open-Weight Models
robleclerc · x · 2026-07-31
The author predicts the future of AI compute will split into two token types:
- Type-1 tokens: Cheap, fast, and abundant, applied to familiar, already-solved problems.
- Type-2 tokens: Expensive, used for frontier reasoning on unsolved problems, potentially requiring swarms of agents working for days or weeks.
As every Type-2 breakthrough eventually becomes a Type-1 commodity, the frontier constantly advances, making it harder for open-weight models to compete. The ultimate question is whether frontier labs can leverage economies of scale to make their Type-1 tokens cheaper than open-weight alternatives—possibly as a loss leader to lock users into their entire stack.
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