5-7 Year Grid Interconnection Queues May Reset AGI Compute Predictions
Novel-Lifeguard6491 · reddit · 2026-07-30
The author points out that many AGI timeline predictions rely on the assumption that compute scaling will continue smoothly. However, the real bottleneck has shifted from chip production to grid interconnection capacity.
In many of the largest US markets, the queue for grid interconnection takes 5-7 years, whereas constructing a data center itself only takes 1-3 years. If true, this implies that even if chip supply were resolved tomorrow, the vast majority of announced AI capacity for 2026-2027 physically cannot hit the market on time due to power grid constraints.
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