Looking Back at 3-Year-Old Predictions: AGI Might Arrive Before Binding Treaties
davidmanheim · x · 2026-07-30
Researcher David Manheim revisited his 3-year-old thread on AI regulation and AGI risk, claiming his core predictions have largely been justified by reality.
He previously highlighted a critical timing gap risk: reaching a binding international treaty or standard takes a long time. If it takes 5 years to secure a treaty and we have 10 years until dangerous AGI, we might be okay. But if a treaty takes 10 years and AGI arrives in 5, regulation will completely lag behind the technological threat.
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