AI doom probability is probably closer to 70%, says the author
AaronBergman18 · x · 2026-07-29
The author says their estimate of P(doom) is much higher than 20%, closer to 70%, while adding that not all of that would look like a catastrophe to a normal observer.
They also suggest that a 20% estimate may be psychologically motivated—more like coping than a true belief.
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