Kevin Bryan Says Minimal RSI Could Arrive Around 2027 as AI R&D Productivity Rises 9%
imjustnewatai · x · 2026-07-29
Kevin Bryan says multiple high-level researchers expect a “minimal RSI” breakthrough around 2027: an AI produces a Chinchilla-law-level insight, tests it, and helps shape the next training run.
A separate METR/Elasticity paper estimates that since coding agents arrived, each one-unit increase in model capability has lifted AI R&D productivity by about 9%. Their back-of-the-envelope threshold for self-sustaining acceleration is around 15%.
The implication is that a model-authored frontier breakthrough could arrive before full self-sustaining takeoff. The key number to watch after 2027 is whether each capability step yields 9%, 12% or 16% more research output.
Related event: AI Researchers Predict Minimal RSI Breakthrough Around 2027(2 posts)→
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