AI hyperscaler debt insurance hits record highs as capex eats 98% of cash flow
GaryMarcus · x · 2026-07-29
The post cites a market note saying the cost of insuring Big Tech debt against default has surged to record highs.
- CDS spreads for Nvidia, Meta, Broadcom, Alphabet, Amazon, Oracle and SpaceX are near or at records.
- Oracle is highlighted as the weakest credit, sitting just above junk after an S&P downgrade in July.
- The argument is that hyperscaler capex is now up 84% year over year and consumes 98% of operating cash flow, leaving little room for buybacks, dividends or balance-sheet cushion.
- The image shows five-year CDS spreads for Nvidia, Meta, Broadcom, Alphabet and Amazon all trending sharply higher in recent months.
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