A new blog post revisits Dutch book arguments against Sleeping Beauty halfers
jessi_cata · x · 2026-07-26
The post examines Dutch book arguments against anthropic theories through the lens of the Sleeping Beauty problem.
It argues that a Dutch book against an agent requires two strict conditions: the bookmaker must not know anything the agent doesn’t at bet time, and the agent’s probabilities must strictly favor the losing sequence of bets under the relevant theory. The author then focuses on causal decision theory (CDT), outlining Dutch book arguments against CDT single-halving and double-halving, arguing that CDT thirding resists Dutch books, and ending with a discussion of evidential decision theory (EDT).
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