AI can be powerful for years before its economic impact shows up
rickasaurus · x · 2026-07-25
Jason Crawford argues that AI’s real-world impact can remain small for a long time even if the technology is already very powerful. The post cites the Industrial Revolution: decades in, UK GDP per capita had only risen about 20%.
- The core point is diffusion is slow: transformative technologies take years or decades to spread through the economy.
- Ruxandra Teslo’s quoted remark says many “AGI-pilled” people can’t clearly explain why model capability and real-world outcomes are still so far apart.
- The attached chart reinforces the historical analogy by showing England’s GDP per capita rising gradually for a long stretch before accelerating later.
Related event: AI Real-World Impact Lags Behind Capabilities(2 posts)→
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