AI productivity gains may take 10 years to become macro gains, Garry Tan says
garrytan · x · 2026-07-25
Garry Tan argues that AI’s productivity gains will stay mostly micro-level until managers and CEOs approve radically different staffing and workflow designs.
- He says organizations have not yet made those changes at scale.
- His timeline is much longer than many expect: this may take 10 years, not 2.
- The quote he is replying to cites Stripe Economics research suggesting AI is improving task-level productivity, but not yet delivering broad macro-productivity gains.
- The underlying point: intelligence alone is not the bottleneck; organizational change is.
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