Musk says Optimus will hit a long, flat ramp before humanoid production scales

XFreeze · x · 2026-07-23

Musk says Optimus production will start slow, then scale with a classic S-curve

Elon Musk says people should be “calibrated correctly” about Optimus: the robot should follow a normal manufacturing S-curve, but the first part will be flat and long because many components are completely new.

He says Tesla’s Fremont production line — built in the space that previously made Model S and Model X — “looks incredible” and that the company is building the manufacturing system needed to eventually produce humanoid robots at very large scale. The early ramp, he says, will be the hardest part before output can accelerate later.

Related event: Tesla Begins Installing First Optimus Production Line(3 posts)→

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