Two Bets on AI's Math Research Capabilities
tamaybes · x · 2026-07-19
A user reviewed their previous bets regarding AI capabilities:
- Bet at 3:1 odds that within 5 years, AI will write a number theory paper worthy of Annals of Mathematics quality for an inference cost not exceeding $100,000.
- Wagered $10,000 that humans will win another Fields Medal before the end of 2030 (excluding the 2026 cycle), betting that top human mathematicians won't be completely replaced by AI in the short term.
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